{"id":11513,"date":"2021-10-01T20:36:51","date_gmt":"2021-10-01T17:36:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/govartishk.com\/?p=11513"},"modified":"2021-10-01T20:36:55","modified_gmt":"2021-10-01T17:36:55","slug":"the-future-of-iri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/govartishk.com\/?p=11513","title":{"rendered":"\u0628\u06d5\u0631\u06d5\u0648 \u06cc\u06d5\u06a9\u062f\u06d5\u0633\u062a\u0628\u0648\u0648\u0646 \u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u062a\u06d5\u06a9\u062c\u06d5\u0646\u0627\u062d\u06cc\u061f \u062f\u0627\u0647\u0627\u062a\u0648\u0648\u06cc \u06a9\u06c6\u0645\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0626\u06cc\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0645\u06cc\u06cc \u0626\u06ce\u0631\u0627\u0646"},"content":{"rendered":"<section  class='av_textblock_section av-k7824krl-bd59cfa6f597433daad56feba4021726 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt; font-family: shasenem-kiteb; color: #000000;\">\u0626\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0631 \u0628\u062e\u0648\u06ce\u0646\u06d5\u0648\u06d5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-k8c42n10-24cc483b350f6b3a3e3a6db4a0c48131\">\n.av-player.av-k8c42n10-24cc483b350f6b3a3e3a6db4a0c48131{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div id=\"av_player-1\" class=\"av-player av-player-container av-k8c42n10-24cc483b350f6b3a3e3a6db4a0c48131 avia-playerstyle-minimal av_player-1  avia-builder-el-1  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_hr  av-player-hide-playlist first avia-playlist-custom-font-color avia-playlist-hide-cover\"><div class=\"av-player-player-container\"><div class=\"wp-playlist wp-audio-playlist wp-playlist-light\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-current-item\"><\/div>\n\t\t<audio controls=\"controls\" preload=\"none\" width=\"1478\"\n\t\t\t><\/audio>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-next\"><\/div>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-prev\"><\/div>\n\t<noscript>\n\t<ol>\n\t\t<li><a href='https:\/\/govartishk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Francois-Joel-Thiollier-Suite-Bergamasque-L.-75-Iii.-Clair-De-Lune-Featured-In-Man-On-Fire.mp3'>Suite bergamasque, L. 75: III. 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style=\"font-size: 18pt; font-family: shasenem-kiteb; color: #f58430;\">\u062f. \u0626\u06cc\u062f\u0631\u06cc\u0633 \u0626\u06d5\u062d\u0645\u06d5\u062f\u06cc<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt; font-family: shasenem-kiteb;\"> <br class=\"avia-permanent-lb\" \/>&#8220;\u062f\u06d5\u0631\u0626\u06d5\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0645\u06cc \u0647\u06d5\u06b5\u0628\u0698\u0627\u0631\u062f\u0646\u06cc \u0633\u06d5\u0631\u06a9\u06c6\u0645\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u06cc \u0633\u0627\u06b5\u06cc \u0662\u0660\u0662\u0661 \u0644\u06d5 \u0626\u06ce\u0631\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0627 \u067e\u06ce\u0634\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u06a9\u0631\u0627\u0648 \u0628\u0648\u0648. \u0644\u06d5\u06af\u06d5\u06b5 \u0626\u06d5\u0648\u06d5\u06cc \u0647\u06d5\u06b5\u0628\u0698\u0627\u0631\u062f\u0646 \u0644\u06d5 \u06a9\u06c6\u0645\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0626\u06cc\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0645\u06cc\u062f\u0627 \u0628\u06d5\u0695\u06ce\u0648\u06d5 \u062f\u06d5\u0628\u0631\u062f\u0631\u06ce\u0646 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\u0644\u0627\u06cc\u06d5\u06a9\u06d5\u0648\u06d5 \u062d\u06d5\u0634\u06cc\u0645\u06d5\u062a\u06cc \u0644\u06d5\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0632\u06c6\u0631\u062a\u0631\u06d5\u060c \u0644\u06d5 \u0644\u0627\u06cc\u06d5\u06a9\u06cc \u062f\u06cc\u06a9\u06d5\u0648\u06d5 \u0647\u06d5\u0645 \u0626\u06d5\u0645\u0631\u06cc\u06a9\u0627 \u0648 \u0647\u06d5\u0645\u06cc\u0634 \u0626\u06cc\u0633\u0631\u0627\u0626\u06cc\u0644 \u0648 \u0648\u06b5\u0627\u062a\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u06d5\u0646\u062f\u0627\u0648\u060c \u0628\u06d5\u0631\u0698\u06d5\u0648\u06d5\u0646\u062f\u06cc\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u06d5\u0648\u06d5\u062f\u0627\u06cc\u06d5 \u0626\u06ce\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0633\u06cc\u0627\u0633\u06d5\u062a\u06cc \u062e\u06c6\u06cc \u0628\u06af\u06c6\u0695\u06ce\u061b \u0644\u06d5\u0648 \u067e\u06ce\u0646\u0627\u0648\u062f\u0627\u060c \u062f\u0631\u06ce\u0698\u06d5 \u0628\u06d5 \u0641\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0647\u06ce\u0646\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u06c6 \u0633\u06d5\u0631 \u0626\u06ce\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u06d5\u062f\u06d5\u0646. \u0628\u06d5\u0648 \u067e\u06ce\u06cc\u06d5\u060c \u0644\u06d5\u0648\u0627\u0646\u06d5\u06cc\u06d5 \u06a9\u06c6\u0645\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0626\u06cc\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0645\u06cc \u0646\u06d5\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u06ce \u0647\u0627\u0648\u0634\u06ce\u0648\u06d5\u06cc \u0626\u06d5\u0648 \u0695\u06ce\u0698\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06d5\u060c \u0628\u06c6 \u0645\u0627\u0648\u06d5\u06cc\u06d5\u06a9\u06cc \u0632\u06c6\u0631\u062a\u0631 \u0644\u06d5 \u0695\u06ce\u06af\u0627\u06cc \u0633\u06d5\u0631\u06a9\u0648\u062a\u06d5\u0648\u06d5 \u0644\u06d5 \u062f\u06d5\u0633\u06d5\u06b5\u0627\u062a\u062f\u0627 \u0628\u0645\u06ce\u0646\u06ce\u062a\u06d5\u0648\u06d5.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><br class=\"avia-permanent-lb\" \/><span style=\"color: #ed1c24; font-size: 14pt; font-family: shasenem-kiteb;\">\u0633\u06d5\u0631\u0686\u0627\u0648\u0627\u0646<\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref1\" name=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a>Mehdi Moslem, <em>Factional Politics in Post-Khomeini Iran <\/em>(Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, 2002).<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref2\" name=\"_edn2\">[ii]<\/a>\u201d Khatami Warns against Constitutional Amendment\u201d, <em>Kuwait News Agency<\/em>, June 6, 2000: <span style=\"color: #ed1c24;\"><a style=\"color: #ed1c24;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.kuna.net.kw\/ArticlePrintPage.aspx?id=1129743&amp;language=en\">https:\/\/www.kuna.net.kw\/ArticlePrintPage.aspx?id=1129743&amp;language=en<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref3\" name=\"_edn3\">[iii]<\/a>Idris Ahmedi and Ali Abdelzadeh, \u201dIran\u201d, in\u00a0Carsten Anckar &amp; Thomas Denk (red.) <em>Komparativ politik: Tio politiska system<\/em>\u00a0(Lund: Studentlitteratur, 2021).<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref4\" name=\"_edn4\">[iv]<\/a>Robert F. Worth,\u201d Iran\u2019s Power Struggle Goes Beyond Personalities to Future of Presidency Itself\u201d, <em>The New York Times<\/em>, October 26, 2011.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref5\" name=\"_edn5\">[v]<\/a> Personalist rule<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref6\" name=\"_edn6\">[vi]<\/a>Jessica L. Weeks, \u201cStrongmen and Straw Men: Authoritarian Regimes and the Initiation of International Conflict,\u201d <em>The American Political Science Review<\/em>, Vol. 106, No. 2 (May 2012); Barbara Geddes, Joseph Wright, and Erica Frantz, <em>How Dictatorships Work: Power, Personalization, and Collapse <\/em>(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018); Erica Frantz et al., \u201cPersonalization of Power and Repression in Dictatorships,\u201d <em>The Journal of Politics<\/em>, Vol. 82, No. 1 (January 2020).<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref7\" name=\"_edn7\">[vii]<\/a>Frantz et al., \u201cPersonalization of Power and Repression in Dictatorships,\u201d pp. 373-74.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref8\" name=\"_edn8\">[viii]<\/a>Weeks, \u201cStrongmen and Straw Men: Authoritarian Regimes and the Initiation of International Conflict,\u201d passim.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref9\" name=\"_edn9\">[ix]<\/a>\u201d Tape of Foreign Minister Zarif reveals regime rift in Iran,\u201d <em>Dusche Welle, April 30, 2021: https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/tape-of-foreign-minister-zarif-reveals-regime-rift-in-iran\/a-57392575<\/em><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref10\" name=\"_edn10\">[x]<\/a> Geddes, Wright, and Frantz, <em>How Dictatorships Work<\/em>, Chap. 8.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref11\" name=\"_edn11\">[xi]<\/a> Misagh Parsa, <em>Democracy in Iran: Why It Failed and How It Might Succeed <\/em>(Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press, 2016), passim.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"#_ednref12\" name=\"_edn12\">[xii]<\/a> \u201dIRGC Commander\u2019s Sharp Response To Rouhani\u201d, <em>Radio Farda<\/em>, June 27, 2017: <span style=\"color: #ed1c24;\"><a style=\"color: #ed1c24;\" href=\"https:\/\/en.radiofarda.com\/a\/iran-rouhani-irgc-response-on-economy\/28581813.html\">https:\/\/en.radiofarda.com\/a\/iran-rouhani-irgc-response-on-economy\/28581813.html<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div><div  class='hr 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